The role of cap rates in real estate

This common metric can help investors assess the potential value of a property.

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In real estate, capitalization rates—commonly called cap rates—are useful risk measurements for commercial properties.

The cap rate formula

Annual net operating income (NOI)/the property’s market value

Calculated by dividing a property’s net operating income by its asset value, the cap rate is an assessment of the yield of a property over one year. For example, a property worth $14 million generating $600,000 of NOI would have a cap rate of 4.3%. That means that you can expect a roughly 4.3% annual operating cash flow given the price paid for the property.

You should also note: It’s critical to make an apples-to-apples comparison with cap rates. For example, it matters if you are comparing cap rates based on actual versus projected income.

What’s a good cap rate? It varies from investor to investor and property to property. In general, the higher the cap rate, the greater the risk and return.

Cap rate levels can also be a reflection of other larger economic factors, such as competition, monetary policy, and real estate zoning and regulations.

Amid market uncertainty, we’re here to help

The impact of interest rates on cap rates

Rising interest rates increase the cost of capital, so fluctuations in the interest rate environment can contribute to rising cap rates.

That’s the case in the current economic environment. The Fed’s interest rate hikes increased financing costs, limiting transaction volume and making it difficult to assess cap rates. As a result, cap rates have increased nationally—multifamily, industrial and office cap rates have increased by 0.8% or more between Q2 of 2022 and Q3 of 2023, according to CoStar data.

The Fed and the market anticipate interest rate cuts in 2024, which would likely lower borrowing costs and decrease cap rates.

Cap rates 3Q 23

Multifamily Industrial Office Retail
Los Angeles 4.60% 4.70% 6.70% 5.30%
San Francisco 4.20% 5.40% 5.90% 4.60%
New York 4.90% 5.70% 6.40% 5.90%
Chicago 6.50% 7.70% 8.90% 7.40%
Seattle 4.60% 5.40% 6.70% 5.80%
Portland 5.10% 6.60% 7.50% 6.40%
Washington 5.30% 6.80% 8.40% 6.10%
National 5.70% 7.00% 8.20% 6.80%

Cap rates change since 2Q 22

Multifamily Industrial Office Retail
Los Angeles 0.70% 0.50% 0.90% 0.10%
San Francisco 0.70% 0.80% 0.90% 0.10%
New York 0.70% 0.60% 0.80% 0.00%
Chicago 0.90% 0.90% 1.00% 0.10%
Seattle 0.70% 0.60% 0.90% 0.00%
Portland 0.80% 0.80% 0.90% 0.00%
Washington 0.80% 0.70% 1.00% 0.00%
National 0.80% 0.80% 0.90% 0.00%

How other macroeconomic factors affect cap rates

Cap rates measure investors’ return expectations, but they’re a forward-looking point-in-time measurement. An investor’s realized returns may differ from their expected ones because of many factors, including:

The bottom line

Cap rates are just one unit of comparison used for evaluating commercial real estate; both macroeconomic and property specific characteristics should be taken into account when determining an appropriate cap rate for any specific property. Various factors, such as supply and demand trends, real estate zoning and regulations, credit worthiness of residents, remaining lease terms and specific lease factors can impact the actual cap rate. An investor’s awareness and diligence can be the differentiator between expectations and outcomes.

Cap rates are among several factors to consider when growing your multifamily portfolio.

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. Visit jpmorgan.com/cb-disclaimer for disclosures and disclaimers related to this content.